Regime shift: hikes back on the table. Warsh's first FOMC (Jun 17) held rates at 3.50–3.75% but the dot plot now signals a hike — nine of 18 members project at least one 25bp increase before year-end. A sharp reversal from the cut narrative that dominated H1.
Chip selloff bites. Tuesday's semiconductor rout (Nasdaq −2.2%, SMH ETF −6.5%) erased weeks of gains. NVDA −4.2%, Micron −13.2%, AMD −5.8% as investors questioned hyperscaler AI capex ROI. South Korea's KOSPI fell −10% in sympathy. Wall Street is tentatively rebounding Wed/Thu ahead of Micron earnings and PCE data today.
Gold retreats from ATH. After hitting a record $5,595 in January, gold has corrected to ~$3,998 — still up materially YTD. Dollar (DXY ~101.6) is strengthening on rate hike expectations, pressuring EUR/USD toward 1.10. Bitcoin fell hard to ~$62,650, lowest in two weeks. Oil elevated on Iran conflict.
| Sector | View | MTD | YTD | Key driver / risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | Neutral | −2.2% | +13.6% | AI ROI doubt · Chip selloff risk |
| Utilities | OW | +3.8% | +12.1% | AI power demand · Rate sensitivity |
| Healthcare | OW | +2.7% | +10.4% | GLP-1 tailwind · Drug pricing reform |
| Energy | Neutral | +3.1% | +5.8% | Iran premium · OPEC+ discipline |
| Financials | Neutral | +1.4% | +8.9% | NIM lift from hike · Credit quality |
| Industrials | Neutral | +1.1% | +5.2% | Reshoring · Labour costs |
| Real Estate | UW | −2.1% | −4.3% | Rate hike biggest headwind |
| Pair | Spot | 1D | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 101.62 | +1.2% | Hike premium bid |
| EUR/USD | 1.1020 | −1.1% | USD strength |
| USD/JPY | 148.40 | +0.8% | Rate differential |
| USD/SGD | 1.3210 | +0.5% | MAS neutral |
| Commodity | Price | 1D | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold ($/oz) | 3,999 | −2.8% | ATH was $5,595 Jan |
| WTI ($/bbl) | 79.40 | +1.4% | Iran war premium |
| Copper ($/lb) | 4.28 | −0.8% | Slowdown risk |
| Bitcoin | 62,651 | −2.0% | 2-week low |
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI YoY | 3.3% | 3.1% | Re-accelerating |
| US Core PCE YoY | 3.6%* | 2.7% | Fed est · due today |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | +148k | +178k | Cooling |
| ISM Manufacturing | 48.7 | 49.2 | Contraction |
| ISM Services | 53.8 | 53.0 | Expansion |
| Fed PCE 2026 Target | 3.6% | 2.7% | Above 2% goal |
| Index | Return (Ann.) | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Max DD | Mths→Trough | Mths→Recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||||
Thesis: The build-out of AI infrastructure represents one of the largest capital allocation cycles in modern economic history. Base case: $1 trillion cumulative global AI infrastructure spend by 2028, driven by hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) and sovereign AI initiatives.
Unlike the dot-com era, this cycle is underpinned by real revenue generation — OpenAI at $3.4B ARR, Anthropic at $1.2B, Microsoft Copilot contributing ~$10B incremental revenue in FY26. The demand signal is authentic.
The picks-and-shovels approach remains our preferred entry: NVDA (compute), ANET (networking), VST/CEG (power), EQIX (co-location). These are less priced for perfection than the model companies themselves.
Key risk: Efficiency breakthroughs (DeepSeek-style) that compress compute requirements faster than demand grows. The next 12 months will test whether scaling laws hold at the frontier.
| Name | Type | Total Ret | Ann Ret | Ann Vol | Sharpe | Max DD | Mths→Trough | Mths→Recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Select portfolios or indices above to compare. | ||||||||
| Index | ETF(s) | TER | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | VOO · SPY · IVV | 0.03% | Cheapest: Vanguard VOO |
| Nasdaq 100 | QQQM · QQQ | 0.15% | QQQM is the cheaper retail version |
| MSCI ACWI | VT · ACWI | 0.07% | VT covers ~9,000 stocks globally |
| Blmbg Global Agg | BNDW · AGG | 0.06% | BNDW = global bonds; AGG = US only |
| HFRI Fund Wtd | QAI (proxy) | 0.75% | No perfect replication — QAI is closest liquid proxy |
| PE Index | IPRV.L · BX · KKR | 0.75%+ | No direct ETF; IPRV.L (LSE listed PE) or buyout firm stocks |
| Priv Credit | ARCC · OBDC · BLUE | 1.00%+ | BDCs offer liquid proxy; direct funds via Apollo, Ares, HPS |
| Priv Infrastructure | IFRA · PAVE · GINN | 0.40% | Listed infra ETFs; unlisted via Macquarie, Brookfield funds |
| Equity L/S HF | QAI · WTMF · LSOF | 0.75% | QAI closest liquid proxy; or fund-of-hedge-funds |
| Gold | GLD · IAU · GLDM | 0.10% | IAU/GLDM cheaper; PHYS for physical allocated gold |
| Silver | SLV · SIVR · PSLV | 0.30% | SIVR cheapest; PSLV for physically allocated silver |
| LGT Premium GIM | LGT direct subscription | ~0.60% | Multi-asset fund; available through LGT Bank directly |
| PIMCO GIS Income | PIMCO direct / platforms | ~0.55% | Multi-sector income; USD I-class via fund platforms |
View: Private credit remains attractive on absolute yield (SOFR+500–600bp = 10.2–11.2% gross) but spread compression is real. Best risk-adjusted exposure: senior secured, first-lien, sponsor-backed mid-market. Avoid covenant-lite and PIK-heavy structures.
Key managers: Apollo, Ares, Blue Owl, HPS. Watch SEC regulatory changes on BDC leverage and liquidity requirements.
View: Vintage 2022–2024 likely attractive — bought at lower multiples, operational improvement runway. Exit environment improving as rates stabilise. IPO window re-opening (ARM, Reddit precedents).
Caution: $2.4T dry powder competing for same deals. Manager selection is alpha — top quartile vs median spread is 800–1,000bp annually.
| Asset | Sub-sector | View | Target Return | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure | Digital / Data centres | OW | 8–12% IRR | AI power demand structural |
| Infrastructure | Energy transition | OW | 9–13% IRR | Policy tailwind, long duration |
| Real Estate | Logistics / Industrial | Neutral | 5–7% cap rate | E-commerce normalising |
| Real Estate | Office | Avoid | Distressed | Structural demand destruction |
| Commodities | Gold | OW | — | CB buying, de-dollarisation |
| Commodities | Copper | OW | — | Electrification, supply deficit 2027+ |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 52W Range | Catalyst | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | ASML Holding | €820 | €612–€890 | EUV backlog, China export clarity | Accumulate |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | $462 | $380–$470 | Cash deployment trigger | Hold |
| MELI | MercadoLibre | $2,180 | $1,640–$2,280 | LatAm fintech growth | Watch |
| — | Add ticker | — | — | — | — |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Run simulation to see results. | |
Finance & macro markets · Polymarket + Manifold · Read-only